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Mid-Year Market Update for 2024: What Buyers and Sellers Need to Know
Last December, when the Federal Reserve projected a series of benchmark rate cuts in the coming year, some analysts speculated that mortgage rates—which had recently peaked near 8%—would fall closer to 6% by mid-2024.1,2,3 Unfortunately, persistent inflation has delayed the central bank’s timeline and kept the average 30-year mortgage rate hovering around 7% so far this year.2
While elevated mortgage rates have continued to dampen the pace of home sales and affordability, there have been some positive developments for frustrated homebuyers. Nationwide, the inventory shortage is starting to ease, and an uptick in starter homes coming on the market has helped to slow the median home price growth rate, presenting some relief to cash-strapped buyers.4
There are also signs that sellers are adjusting to the higher rate environment, as a growing number list their properties for sale.4 Still, economists say a persistent housing deficit—combined with tighter lending standards and historically high levels of home equity—will help keep the market stable.5
What does that mean for you? Read on for our take on this year’s most important real estate news and get a sneak peek into what analysts predict is around the corner for 2024.
MORTGAGE RATE CUTS WILL TAKE LONGER THAN EXPECTED
At its most recent meeting on May 1, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep its overnight rate at a 23-year high in response to the latest, still-elevated inflation numbers.6
While mortgage rates aren’t directly tied to the federal funds rate, they do tend to move in tandem. So, while expected, the Fed’s announcement was further proof that a meaningful decline in mortgage rates—and a subsequent real estate market rebound—is farther off than many experts predicted.
“The housing market has always been interest rate sensitive. When rates go up, we tend to see less activity,” explained Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale in a recent article. “The housing market is even more rate sensitive now because many people are locked into low mortgage rates and because first-time buyers are really stretched by high prices and borrowing costs.”7
Many experts now speculate that the first benchmark rate cut will come no sooner than September, so homebuyers hoping for a cheaper mortgage will have to remain patient.
“We’re not likely to see mortgage rates decline significantly until after the Fed makes its first cut; and the longer it takes for that to happen, the less likely it is that we’ll see rates much below 6.5% by the end of the year,” predicted Rick Sharga, CEO at CJ Patrick Company, in a May interview.8What does it mean for you? Mortgage rates aren’t expected to fall significantly any time soon, but that doesn’t necessarily mean you should wait to buy a home. A drop in rates could lead to a spike in home prices if pent-up demand sends a flood of homebuyers back into the market. Reach out to schedule a free consultation so we can help you chart the best course for your home purchase or sale.
BUYERS ARE GAINING OPTIONS AS SELLERS RETURN TO THE MARKET
There is a silver lining for buyers who have struggled to find the right property: More Americans are sticking a for-sale in their yard.9 Given the record-low inventory levels of the past few years, this presents an opportunity for buyers to find a place they love—and potentially score a better deal.
In 2023, inventory remained scarce as homeowners who felt beholden to their existing mortgage rates delayed their plans to sell. However, a recent survey by Realtor.com shows that a growing number of those owners are ready to jump in off the sidelines.10
While the majority of potential sellers still report feeling “locked in” by their current mortgage, the share has declined slightly (79% now versus 82% in 2023). Additionally, nearly one-third of those “locked-in” owners say they need to sell soon for personal reasons, and the vast majority (86%) report that they’ve already been thinking about selling for more than a year.10
Renewed optimism may also be playing a part. “Both our ‘good time to buy’ and ‘good time to sell’ measures continued their slow upward drift this month,” noted Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan in an April statement.11
However, the current stock of available homes still falls short of pre-pandemic levels, according to economists at Realtor.com. “For the first four months of this year, the inventory of homes actively for sale was at its highest level since 2020. However, while inventory this April is much improved compared with the previous three years, it is still down 35.9% compared with typical 2017 to 2019 levels.”4\
What does it mean for you? If you’ve had trouble finding a home in the past, you may want to take another look. An increase in inventory, coupled with relatively low buyer competition, could make this an ideal time to make a move. Reach out if you’re ready to search for your next home.
If you’re hoping to sell this year, you may also want to act now. If inventory levels grow, it will become more challenging for your home to stand out. We can craft a plan to maximize your profits, starting with a professional assessment of your home’s current market value. Contact us to schedule a free consultation.
HOME PRICES ARE RISING AT A MORE MANAGEABLE PACE
Homebuyers struggling with high borrowing costs have something else to celebrate. The national median home price has remained relatively stable over the past year, due to sellers bringing a greater share of smaller, more affordable homes to the market.4
In addition to offering cheaper homes, a recent survey found that home sellers are also adjusting their expectations when it comes to pricing. In many regions, just 12% anticipate a bidding war (down from 23% last year) and only 15% expect to sell above list price (versus 31% in 2023).10
But buyers shouldn’t expect a fire sale. According to Realtor.com’s April Housing Market Trends Report, “On an adjusted per-square-foot basis, the median list price grew by 3.8%, as homes continue to retain their value despite increased inventory compared with last year.”4
Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist for the data firm CoreLogic, projects that home prices will keep rising at a gradual pace through the rest of 2024. “Spring home price gains are already off to a strong start despite continued mortgage rate volatility. That said, more inventory finally coming to market will likely translate to more options for buyers and fewer bidding wars, which typically keeps outsized price growth in check.”12
What does it mean for you? An increase in more affordable housing stock is great news, especially for first-time buyers. And with home values expected to keep rising, an investment in real estate could help you build wealth over time. Reach out to discuss your goals and budget, and we can help you decide if you’re ready to take your first step on the property ladder.
DESIRE TO OWN PERSISTS, BUT AFFORDABILITY REMAINS AN OBSTACLE
Surveys show that the American dream of homeownership is alive and well, despite the financial challenges. In fact, a recent poll by Realtor.com found that 55% of Millennial and 40% of Gen Z respondents believe that now is a good time to buy a home.13
According to Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan, buyers are starting to adapt to the new economic reality. “With the historically low rates of the pandemic era now firmly behind us, some households appear to be moving past the hurdle of last year’s sharp jump in rates, an adjustment that we think could help further thaw the housing market. We noted in our latest monthly forecast that we expect to see a gradual increase in home listings and sales transactions in the coming year.”
The Realtor.com study also revealed that even a small drop in mortgage rates could give a big boost to homebuyer demand and affordability. In fact, 40% of the buyers polled would find a home purchase attainable if rates fall under 6%, and an additional 32% plan to enter the market if rates dip below 5%.13
But waiting for rates to drop isn’t the only approach that Americans are using to afford a home. A survey by U.S. News & World Report found that determined homebuyers are employing a variety of strategies, including shopping multiple lenders (52%), purchasing discount points to lower their rates (36%), and opting for adjustable-rate mortgages (36%). More than three-quarters of today’s buyers also hope to refinance to a lower rate in the future.14
Despite the obstacles, these respondents remain steadfast in their desire to own a home, listing financial benefits, stability, and more space as their top motivations for wanting to buy.14
What does it mean for you? If you’re dreaming of a new home, let’s talk. We can help you evaluate your options and connect you with a mortgage professional to discuss strategies you can use to make your monthly payments more affordable. And remember, in many cases, you can refinance if rates drop in the future.
If you have plans to sell, it will be crucial to enlist the help of a skilled agent who knows how to maximize your profit margins and draw in qualified buyers. Reach out for a copy of our multi-step Property Marketing Plan.
I AM HERE TO GUIDE YOU
While national housing reports can give you a “big picture” outlook, much of real estate is local. And as a local market expert, I know what’s most likely to impact sales and drive home values in your particular neighborhood. As a trusted partner in your real estate journey, I can guide you through the market’s twists and turns.
If you’re considering buying or selling a home in 2024, contact us now to schedule a free consultation. Let’s work together and craft an action plan to meet your real estate goals.
The above references an opinion and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult the appropriate for advice regarding your individual needs.
Sources:
- CBS News – https://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-reserve-rate-decision-pause-december-13/
- Bankrate – https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/historical-mortgage-rates/
- Fannie Mae – https://www.fanniemae.com/media/50096/display
- Realtor.com – https://www.realtor.com/research/april-2024-data/
- Bankrate – https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/is-the-housing-market-about-to-crash/
- NPR – https://www.npr.org/2024/05/01/1248454950/federal-reserve-inflation-interest-rates
- Realtor.com – https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/will-the-fed-cut-interest-rates-2024-housing-market/
- The Mortgage Reports – https://themortgagereports.com/32667/mortgage-rates-forecast-fha-va-usda-conventional
- Fast Company – https://www.fastcompany.com/91106568/housing-market-inventory-rising-across-country-maps
- Realtor.com – https://www.realtor.com/research/2023-q1-sellers-survey-btts/
- Fannie Mae – https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/surveys-indices/national-housing-survey
- CoreLogic – https://www.corelogic.com/press-releases/corelogic-us-annual-home-price-growth-slows-still-up-by-over-5-february/
- Realtor.com – https://www.realtor.com/research/america-dream-survey-feb-2024/
- US News & World Report – https://money.usnews.com/loans/mortgages/articles/2024-homebuyer-survey
East Texas: What’s Really Happening with Mortgage Rates?
Mortgage rates don’t move in a straight line. There are too many factors at play for that to happen. Instead, rates bounce around because they’re impacted by things like economic conditions, decisions from the Federal Reserve, and so much more. That means they might be up one day and down the next depending on what’s going on in the economy and the world as a whole.
Thinking About Buying a Home?
If you’re thinking of buying a home this year, you’re probably paying closer attention than normal to the housing market. And you’re getting your information from a variety of channels: the news, social media, your real estate agent, conversations with friends and loved ones, the list goes on and on. Most likely, home prices and mortgage rates are coming up a lot.
Here are the top two questions you need to ask yourself as you make your decision, including the data that helps cut through the noise.
1. Where Do I Think Home Prices Are Heading?
One reliable place you can turn to for information on home price forecasts is the Home Price Expectations Survey from Fannie Mae – a survey of over one hundred economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists.
According to the most recent release, the experts are projecting home prices will continue to rise at least through 2028 (see the graph below):
So, why does this matter to you? While the percent of appreciation may not be as high as it was in recent years, what’s important to focus on is that this survey says we’ll see prices rise, not fall, for at least the next 5 years.
And home prices rising, even at a more moderate pace, is good news not just for the market, but for you too. It means, by buying now, your home will likely grow in value, and you should gain home equity in the years ahead. But, if you wait, based on these forecasts, the home will only cost you more later on.
2. Where Do I Think Mortgage Rates Are Heading?
Over the past year, mortgage rates spiked up in response to economic uncertainty, inflation, and more. But there’s an encouraging sign for the market and mortgage rates. Inflation is moderating, and here’s why this is such a big deal if you’re looking to buy a home.
When inflation cools, mortgage rates generally fall in response. That’s exactly what we’ve seen in recent weeks. And, now that the Federal Reserve has signaled they’re pausing their Federal Funds Rate increases and may even cut rates in 2024, experts are even more confident we’ll see mortgage rates come down.
Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains:
“. . . mortgage rates will continue to ease in 2024 as inflation improves and Fed rate cuts get closer. . . . a key factor in starting to provide affordability relief to homebuyers.”
As an article from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says:
“Mortgage rates likely have peaked and are now falling from their recent high of nearly 8%. . . . This likely will improve housing affordability and entice more home buyers to return to the market . . .”
No one can say with absolute certainty where mortgage rates will go from here. But the recent decline and the latest decision from the Federal Reserve to stop their rate increases, signals there’s hope on the horizon. While we may see some volatility here and there, affordability should improve as rates continue to ease.
Bottom Line
If you’re thinking about buying a home, you need to know what’s expected with home prices and mortgage rates. While no one can say for certain where they’ll go, making sure you have the latest information can help you make an informed decision. Let’s connect so you can stay up to date on what’s happening and why this is such good news for you.
Is It Time To Sell Your Second Home?
Rear view of senior couple standing in garden of their home
During the pandemic, second homes became popular because of the rise in work-from-home flexibility. That’s because owning a second home, especially in the luxury market, allowed those homeowners to spend more time in their favorite places or with different home features. Keep in mind, a luxury home isn’t only defined by price. In a recent article, Investopedia shares additional factors that push a home into this category: location, such as a home on the water or in a desirable city, and features, the things that make the home itself feel luxurious.
A recent report from the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing (ILHM) explains just how much remote work impacted the demand for second and luxury homes:
“The unprecedented ten-fold increase towards remote work since the pandemic is an historic development that will continue to fuel second home demand for many years to come.”
But what if you bought a second home that you no longer use? If you’re now shifting back into the office or are seeing your priorities and needs change, you may find you’re not utilizing your second home as much. If so, it may be time to sell it.
And if you own what’s considered a luxury home, buyer demand for it may be even greater. In another report, the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing explains:
“. . . the last few years have left their legacy for the luxury market. While it might only represent a small percentage of the overall real estate market, luxury homeownership’s influence is growing. Not only has the purchase of homes valued over $1 million (a figure considered by the National Association of Realtors to be a benchmark for luxury) tripled from 2.6% to 6.5% since 2018, but demand for multiple luxury properties has soared over the last two years.
This phenomenal increase has been driven by a growing affluent demographic who consider owning a luxury property a necessity in their asset portfolio. All indications are that this trend is here to stay, albeit that demand is set to return to a more sustainable level.”
If you own a luxury second home that isn’t being used as much anymore, now’s the time to sell. There are still buyers in the market who are looking for a home like yours today.
Bottom Line
Let’s connect to explore the benefits of selling your second home this year.
Key Factors Affecting Home Affordability Today
Key Factors Affecting Home Affordability Today
Every time there’s a news segment about the housing market, we hear about the affordability challenges buyers are facing today. Those headlines are focused on how much mortgage rates have climbed this year. And while it’s true rates have risen dramatically, it’s important to remember they aren’t the only factor in the affordability equation.
Here are three measures used to establish home affordability: home prices, mortgage rates, and wages. Let’s look closely at each one.
1. Mortgage Rates
This is the factor most people are focused on when they talk about homebuying conditions today. So far, current rates are almost four full percentage points higher than they were at the beginning of the year. As Len Kiefer, Deputy Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, explains:
“U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rates have increased 3.83 percentage points since the end of last year. That’s the biggest year-to-date increase in rates in over 50 years.”
That increase in mortgage rates is impacting how much it costs to finance a home purchase, creating a challenge for many buyers that’s pricing some out of the market. While the current global uncertainty makes it difficult to project where mortgage rates will go in the future, experts do say that rates will likely remain high as long as inflation does.
2. Home Prices
The second factor at play is home prices. Home prices have made headlines over the past few years because they skyrocketed during the pandemic. Now, the most recent Home Price Index from S&P Case-Shiller shows home values continued to decelerate for a fifth consecutive month (shown in green in the graph below):
This deceleration is happening because higher mortgage rates are moderating demand, and as a result, easing the buyer competition and bidding wars that previously drove prices up.
What’s worth noting though, is how much higher home prices still are than they were before the pandemic (shown in blue in the graph above). Even now, we have a long way to go to get to more normal levels of home price appreciation, which is historically closer to 4%. When both mortgage rates and home prices are high, affordability and your purchasing power become a greater challenge.
But while prices are still elevated in many markets, some areas are seeing slight declines. It all depends on your local market. For insight into what’s happening in your area, reach out to a trusted real estate professional.
3. Wages
The one big, positive component in the affordability equation is the increase in American wages. The graph below uses data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to show how wages have grown over time. This year is no exception.
As the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports:
“Median weekly earnings of the nation’s 120.2 million full-time wage and salary workers were $1,070 in the third quarter of 2022 (not seasonally adjusted), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported…This was 6.9 percent higher than a year earlier…”
So, when you think about affordability, remember the full picture includes more than just mortgage rates. Home prices and wages need to be factored in as well. Because wages have been rising, they’re a big reason why serious buyers are still purchasing homes this year.
If you have questions or want to learn more, reach out to a trusted advisor who can explain how all of these variables work together and what’s happening in your area. As Leslie Rouda Smith, President of the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:
“Buying or selling a home involves a series of requirements and variables, and it’s important to have someone in your corner from start to finish to make the process as smooth as possible… and objectivity to deliver trusted expertise to consumers in every U.S. ZIP code.”
Bottom Line
To learn more, let’s connect today and make sure you have a trusted lender so you’re able to make an informed decision if you’re planning to buy or sell a home right now.
